Super Bowl 47 Betting Predictions
In this article, we are going to look at the teams and their corresponding odds to win the Super Bowl. There are several teams that warrant a look here and we will also look at some dark horse challengers before giving out our 2013 Super Bowl prediction.
We’ll start off by eliminating the teams that have no realistic chance of reaching the big game. We’ll do this is descending order of their odds – Miami (50-1), Tennessee (50-1), Washington (50-1), Oakland (65-1), St. Louis (75-1), Tampa Bay (75-1), Minnesota (100-1), Indianapolis (150-1), Jacksonville (150-1) and Cleveland (200-1).
We will separate the remaining teams with the following headings –
3. Could Surprise
Favorites – The Packers are co-favorites at 13-2. This should come as no surprise as they dominated the league last year (15-1) despite having the league’s worst defense. The offense should be good again as Green Bay didn’t lose anyone on that side of the ball in the offseason. The defense has been supplemented with six draft picks as GM Ted Thompson actually traded up twice to grab targeted players. The secondary still looks suspect and the Packers are counting on rookie OLB Nick Perry to upgrade the pass rush. The other co-favorite is the Patriots. They reached the Super Bowl despite having the 31st-rated defense and like the Packers, traded up twice to grab two potential starters on defense. The AFC looks to be weaker than the NFC right now and look for New England to grab one of the two bye positions in the playoffs. The 49ers are next at 10-1 and look to be an easy repeat winner in the NFC West. They appear to have upgraded the receiver position and hope that will get the offense on the same level as their physical defense. The Texans (14-1) look to be a solid bid to also repeat as division winners and their December 10th visit to New England could help determine who gets home field advantage in the payoffs. Houston had some bad injuries last year but those players are all expected back and look for them to be a real threat come January. The Giants (18-1) are getting little respect as a defending champion and that surprises us. They return almost all of their starters and used the draft to add good depth to their offense. They will be in a dogfight to win their division but they have shown they know how to win in the playoffs. The Steelers (18-1) are the last team in this group and like the Giants, have proven they know how to win in the postseason. They have upgraded their O-line and should be better in the front seven as they have made a concerted effort to get younger. They need to do a better job of protecting QB Ben Roethlisberger but we see them making a charge for the AFC title.
Contenders – The Eagles (14-1) are slotted this high based more on potential than what they have shown on the field. They stumbled to an 8-8 record in 2011 as turnovers (38, second only to Tampa Bay) did them in. The defense didn’t play well for stretches as the players had a hard time grasping the Wide Nine formation and long time O-line coach, Def. Co. Juan Castillo appeared overmatched at times. A dangerous team that needs a lot to go their way to reach the Super Bowl. The Ravens (16-1) deserve respect for what they have done over the past decade but we think they are in tough this year. Losing OLB Terrell Suggs (Achilles’) for the year is huge as he is their only reliable pass rusher. The offense is making strides but still needs more playmakers on the outside. The Saints (18-1) have had a lot to deal with since the end of the season but an unhappy QB Drew Brees is something they must rectify quickly. If he plays, this team will score points. New Def. Co. Steve Spagnuolo had great success in that role with the Giants and he should be able to get more out of the players on defense than Gregg Williams did. The Falcons (25-1) aren’t getting a lot of respect because they can’t win a playoff game. They could overtake the Saints this season and host a playoff game in January. QB Matt Ryan has improved but their season will be determined by how well their much-maligned defense plays.
Could Surprise – The Chargers (25-1) have the most talent in the division but need a bounce-back year from QB Philip Rivers. The defense added some pieces and while they lost WR Vincent Jackson, they added three fast receivers in FA. We feel they will win the AFC West. The Panthers (35-1) still have a ways to go as a team but they can run the ball, have a franchise QB in place (who will only get better) and a good O-line. The defense was besieged by injuries in 2011 but have some good players in place. Could really benefit from the tumult in New Orleans and the pressure in Atlanta. The Bengals (40-1), we feel, are better than several teams above them on this list. They made the playoffs last year with a rookie QB and have a good defense that is young and getting better. They also had a very solid draft and should get contributions from at least 6-7 of their picks. A threat to overtake the Ravens in their division. There are four teams listed at 50-1 that are long shots that could make the playoffs. While we don’t expect them to make the Super Bowl, they could shock some people with their play. The Cardinals, Bills and Seahawks all have questions at QB but have defenses that are rising. If Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Flynn respectively, come through, their teams have a chance. The Chiefs won their division two years ago but injuries derailed their 2011 season. We expect them to battle the Chargers for the division title.
Pretenders – Only the Packers, Patriots and 49ers have lower odds than the Broncos. That’s shocking as the mere presence of QB Peyton Manning isn’t enough to propel this team to the Super Bowl. This team surrendered 40+ points in five games last year and needed end-of-the-game heroics by departed QB Tim Tebow to win several games. Manning doesn’t have the same receiving talent here that he had in Indianapolis and at 36; his best days are behind him. Clearly not the 2nd-best club in the AFC. The Bears (16-1) also have a lot of questions to answer. Will they make RB Matt Forte happy and sign him to a long-term deal? Will the O-line be able to protect QB Jay Cutler? Will an aging defense continue to regress or find someone else to rush the passer besides DE Julius Peppers? That’s too many wills for us. The Cowboys and Lions are both listed at 20-1 and do have several positives on their side. Both have franchise QBs and talent at the WR position. Both clubs also have defenses that let them down in 2011. The Cowboys added talent at the CB position but also have questions on their O-line. No better than the 3rd-best team in the NFC East. The Lions could finish second in their division behind the Packers but they have also had six players arrested since season’s end. There appears to be a high ‘knucklehead’ factor in the Motor City and that has to be taken care of quickly. Finding a consistent RB and a CB who can cover are also need issues. The Jets (25-1) seem to be trending down. They had back-to-back appearances in the AFC title game in 2009 and 2010 but skidded to an 8-8 season behind inconsistent QB play, a sinking running game and locker-room infighting. They are now closer to Buffalo than New England and is there a slower team in the league than New York?
From a betting value standpoint, we like the Texans (14-1), the Giants (18-1), the Steelers (18-1) and the Bengals (40-1). Stay away from the Broncos (14-1), Bears (16-1), Cowboys (20-1) and the Jets (25-1).
Our Top Super Bowl 47 Pick
We think the Houston Texans offer the best value and we've dropped a few hundred on them to win the 2013 Super Bowl.